Novel climate scenarios and future projections: scenarioMIP

Suomi NPP View of Summer Arctic Storm

Novel climate scenarios and future projections: scenarioMIP

In CMIP5, the RCPs were used to explore climate change. In the coming years, new scenarios will be formulated that should be used by the ESM community as part of CMIP6. This WP focuses on the development of new scenarios of the drivers of climate change (e.g. socio-economic development, future trace gas and aerosols emissions and future landuse/ land-cover). WP11 focuses on use of this data in generating an ensemble of ESM projections. This effort constitutes a major European contribution to the CMIP6 ScenarioMIP. Specific objectives are to:
• Develop improved methodologies on how socio-economic scenarios can best be developed to integrate knowledge on climate change, climate impacts, adaptation and mitigation.
• Improve information exchange between IAMs and ESMs in support of Earth system projections.
• Contribute to the design and development of a new set of scenarios describing the range of possible future evolutions of emissions and land use as input to CMIP6 Earth system models.