Uncertainty surrounding the extent of future climate change could be dramatically reduced by studying year-on-year global temperature fluctuations, new research has shown. For detailed explanations on this study, watch online the webinar below by Mark Williamson, co-author of the study. A team of scientists from the University of Exeter and the Centre of Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) […]
Using advanced Earth system models to deliver reliable estimates of future global change Realizing the Paris Agreement: A rapidly closing window of opportunity Human activity, notably the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2), is changing the climate. Presently, only ~50% of emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere causing the climate to warm. The remaining 50% is […]
By Alberto Muñoz (UNIVLEEDS, UK), Nada Caud (IPSL-CNRS, France) and Asher Minns (UEA, UK).
There is a wealth of scientific evidence for climate change – enough to fill five IPCC reports – but there is much less known about how to communicate this climate change research to the public. On September 25th CRESCENDO organised a one-day practical workshop for early and mid-career researchers in CRESCENDO to gain knowledge of the science of climate change communication, and the confidence to apply this knowledge in practice with non-academic audiences.
The training day was led by Asher Minns, RT5 leader in CRESCENDO and Head of Communication at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, in partnership with Chris Shaw of Climate Outreach in a workshop co-created by Asher and Adam Corner as part of the HELIX project.
The workshop consisted of 5 sessions and covered a set of very clear aims:
By Peter Cox (UNEXE, UK).
CRESCENDO was heavily-involved in a highly-creative workshop on Model Evaluation at the Aspen Global Change Institute (AGCI) this summer (http://www.agci.org/event/17s2 ). The workshop was co-directed by Veronika Eyring and Peter Cox of CRESCENDO, in partnership with Peter Gleckler (Lawrence Livermore) and Greg Flato (Canadian Climate Centre). Its aims were closely aligned to some of the key goals of CRESCENDO, namely to ‘contribute to reducing the spread of climate projections by enabling more complete evaluation of model outputs against observations, and by identifying Emergent Constraints – observable aspects of the contemporary Earth System that are most closely related to future projections’.
By T. Davies-Barnard (UNEXE, UK).
CRESCENDO was invited to the ClimatEurope Festival – a celebratory conference of climate services work funded by the European Union through the Horizon H2020 programme. This was a fascinating introduction to climate services for me, an Earth System Modeller. It really showcased the range of work that is done based on the CMIP model results which CRESCENDO helps develop and run.
“Cooperation between Earth System Models and Integrated Assessment Models as done in CRESCENDO will help us to implement the Paris climate targets. It will provide insights on the efforts needed to implement these targets as well as the benefits”. This statement from Colin Jones, CRESCENDO Project Coordinator, was one of the most important take-home messages […]
CRESCENDO has teamed up with the White Rose Brussels to organise its 1st policy briefing at the European Parliament on Tuesday 28th February
Realizing the Paris Agreement – Pathways and benefits of limiting global warming to 1.5C
London MEP Seb Dance has kindly agreed to host us in the European Parliament for a topical policy briefing that will address the 1.5/2°C global warming target set out in the Paris Accord, and will emphasize the use of Earth system models for investigating possible pathways to limiting global warming to 1.5/2°C. This engaging event will also assess the socio-economic benefits of limiting warming to these levels compared to less ambitious targets.
30-31 Jan 2017, Hamburg, MPI-M (Geomatikum Building, Bundesstr. 55, room 1729)
Conveners: Victor Brovkin and Lena Boysen (MPI, Germany)
The meeting of CRESCENDO terrestrial modelling groups was dedicated to the preparation of experiments designed to quantify land use effect on climate. 20 scientists from 7 European ESM groups discussed new aspects of the land use change (LUC) dataset prepared for the historical CMIP6 simulation. This new LUC forcing is much more complex than it was for CMIP5. How could models with different land cover structure interpret LUC scenarios in a consistent way? For example, this new forcing includes rangeland as a new LUC class. Some models assume that rangelands are natural vegetation and ignore the new class, while others treat rangelands as pastures, which are cleaned of forests, and suppress fires etc. Another divergence issue is on sub-grid scale transitions. Several models use so-called gross transitions accounting for crop rotations within grid cell, while others use simplified net transitions. Gross transitions are more difficult to implement; however, they better reflect changes in the land carbon budget. These and other details of the LUC dataset and their usage in ESMs were intensely discussed in a Q&A telecon session with George Hurtt of the University of Maryland, head of the group developing the land use forcing for CMIP6.
15-16 November 2016, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Germany
Conveners: Veronika Eyring, Björn Brötz, Axel Lauer, Alexander Löw, Ben Müller, and Mattia Righi
The 2nd workshop on the technical development of the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) was held at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU) in the Department of Geography from 15-16 November 2016. The ESMValTool is developed as a community system, open to both users and developers, hence encouraging open exchange of evaluation methods and results (Eyring et al., 2016c). This will facilitate and improve Earth System Model (ESM) evaluation beyond the state-of-the-art and aims at supporting model evaluation and development activities at individual modelling centres and within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It is envisaged to run the tool routinely on model output submitted to CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6, Eyring et al. (2016a)), utilizing observations and reanalyses available through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) in standard formats (obs4MIPs/ana4MIPs) or provided by the user.
To download the workshop summary as pdf click here
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