Figure 1. Range of Climate Sensitivities across different IPCC AR cycles, contrasted with the multi-model range in CMIP5/AR5 and as of September 2019 in CMIP6. Figure made by Manuel Schlund (DLR) using theESMValTool package.
Figure 2. Global mean surface warming relative to 1850-1900 mean for 10 CMIP6 models (left side), following five SSP pathways shown in the legend and the full CMIP5 ensemble (right side, with time-axis reveresed) following the earlier CMIP5 RCPs. The red plume (red line) plots the CMIP6/CMIP5 multi-model ensemble (ensemble mean) of SSP5-85/RCP85, while the blue plume plots the same for SSP1-26/RCP26. The grey plume and black line shows the historical temperature anomaly for CMIP6 and CMIP5. Figure produced by Erich Fischer ETH Zurich using the ESMValTool package.
Figure 3. A schematic representation of how Likelihoods of a given outcome (e.g .of Climate sensitivity) combines with the impacts associated with each outcome to resuls in a risk to society (Sutton 2018).
Author: Colin Jones (U. Leeds) Contributions from: Chris Jones (Met Office), Cat Scott (U. Leeds), Laurent Bopp (Ecole Normale and IPSL) and Maarten van den Berg (PBL)